In a significant geopolitical development, China and Pakistan have agreed to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, marking a new phase of trilateral cooperation between the three nations. While the move is being projected as one aimed at enhancing regional peace, stability, and economic prosperity, its implications for India are far more complex — and potentially dangerous.
Strategic Realignment in the Region
The expansion of CPEC into Afghanistan represents more than just an infrastructure project. It signals a deeper strategic alignment between China, Pakistan, and the Taliban-led Afghan administration. The decision comes at a time when India has been cautiously increasing its diplomatic engagement with the Taliban, highlighted by a recent ministerial-level conversation between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Taliban acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.
In response, China swiftly orchestrated trilateral talks involving Islamabad and Kabul, reaffirming its role as a regional powerbroker. Beijing also used the occasion to push for enhanced diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan — a historically fraught relationship marred by airstrikes, refugee crises, and mutual accusations of harboring terrorists.
A Headache for New Delhi
India has consistently opposed CPEC, particularly because key segments pass through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), a territory New Delhi considers illegally occupied. The inclusion of Afghanistan — a country India has sought to engage through humanitarian aid and diplomatic outreach — into this corridor puts India in a difficult position. It dilutes India’s growing rapport with the Taliban regime, threatens its strategic depth in the region, and raises fresh concerns about the emergence of a consolidated anti-India bloc on its western frontier.
Moreover, the backdrop to this development is India’s military response — Operation Sindoor — launched against terror infrastructure in PoK and Pakistan following the deadly Pahalgam attack. That Afghanistan would now align itself with the two nations India has territorial disputes with raises the stakes significantly. Despite the Taliban condemning the Pahalgam attack and rejecting Pakistan’s narrative that India targeted Afghan territory, their newfound solidarity with Islamabad and Beijing complicates India’s security calculus.
The Role of China
China’s role in this trilateral alliance cannot be understated. It was the first country to accept an ambassador from the Taliban regime, and while it hasn’t formally recognized the government, its actions speak volumes. By facilitating high-level engagements and promising trade, infrastructure development, and reconstruction aid, Beijing is not only securing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) but also insulating its western frontiers in Xinjiang — where it faces security concerns linked to Islamic extremism.
Beijing’s strategic embrace of Afghanistan also acts as a counterweight to India’s diplomatic inroads into Kabul. With 82% of Pakistan’s defense imports coming from China, and Beijing’s increasing economic and diplomatic leverage in Afghanistan, the contours of an emerging axis that could corner India in the region are becoming more defined.
India’s Next Move
India, for its part, has tried to maintain a pragmatic approach. It has kept its diplomatic channels open with Kabul, offered humanitarian assistance, and even allowed the Taliban to manage Afghan consulates in India. But the latest developments call for a strategic recalibration.
India must now weigh whether deeper engagement with the Taliban can prevent a complete strategic pivot toward China and Pakistan. Additionally, New Delhi will need to ramp up its diplomatic efforts in Central Asia and strengthen alliances with other regional powers such as Iran and Russia to counterbalance the growing China-Pakistan-Afghanistan entente.
India’s Strategic Challenge
The extension of CPEC into Afghanistan marks a pivotal moment in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. For India, this trilateral partnership is not just a regional nuisance but a strategic threat. As China tightens its grip and Pakistan finds a willing partner in Kabul, India’s influence risks being curtailed in a region where it has long held sway.
What unfolds next will depend on New Delhi’s ability to navigate this new reality with agility, foresight, and strategic clarity. The race for influence in Afghanistan is far from over, but the terms of engagement have certainly changed.
