Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to soon resign as Liberal Party leader, according to The Globe and Mail, citing multiple sources. While it’s unclear when exactly he will make his resignation announcement, it is expected to happen before the national caucus meeting on Wednesday. The 53-year-old leader’s resignation comes amid intense internal party pressure and declining public support, with Trudeau trailing behind Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in recent polls.
Should Trudeau step down this week, it will likely have significant implications for India-Canada relations, which have been strained over the past few months, particularly following the controversial killing of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Trudeau had accused the Indian government of involvement in the killing on Canadian soil, a claim that India has vehemently denied. To date, Trudeau’s team has not presented any concrete evidence to support these allegations, leaving relations between the two countries in a delicate position.
A New Phase for India-Canada Relations?
Trudeau’s resignation could mark a turning point for India-Canada relations, depending on who succeeds him as leader. If the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, takes charge, the approach towards India may shift, with a greater emphasis on economic partnerships and shared geopolitical interests. However, Poilievre’s past actions have raised concerns. Last year, he controversially pulled out of a Diwali event, a move that was criticized by several Hindu groups in Canada, potentially affecting the delicate ties with the Indian diaspora.
Economic and Trade Ties
Under Trudeau’s leadership, Canada-India trade saw a boost, reaching $8.4 billion by the end of the 2023-2024 fiscal year, a slight increase from the previous year. Canada exports minerals, potash, industrial chemicals, and other goods to India, while India exports pharmaceuticals, marine products, and electronics to Canada. Any leadership change could influence ongoing trade negotiations, particularly the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two countries. So far, neither country has imposed tariffs or retaliatory economic measures, but a change in government could alter this dynamic.
Immigration Policies and the Indian Diaspora
Trudeau’s administration also took steps that impacted Indian nationals, especially regarding immigration policies. Canada ended its fast-track study visa program, which had been popular with Indian students, and reduced the number of international student permits. This move has affected many Indian students, with India being the largest source country of foreign students in Canada, contributing to around 427,000 students.
In contrast, Poilievre and the Conservative Party have expressed their intention to revert to a more restrictive immigration system. Poilievre has criticized Trudeau for “souring” relations with India, suggesting that a new Conservative government would adopt a more focused approach to immigration, granting permits to only highly promising students.
Political Pressures and Trudeau’s Departure
Trudeau’s potential resignation follows significant pressure from within his own party, with many Liberal MPs urging him to step down due to his declining popularity. Recent events, including the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland over policy disagreements with Trudeau, have further intensified calls for his departure. The resignation could further destabilize the Liberal Party as Canada prepares for elections later this year.
In summary, Justin Trudeau’s resignation could be the beginning of a new phase for Canada-India relations, with the potential for a shift in trade, immigration policies, and diplomatic engagement, depending on who takes over leadership in Canada. As the political landscape in Canada continues to evolve, the impact on the broader relationship with India remains a crucial factor for both nations.
