When Donald Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that his “preference would be to take the oil in Iran,” he was not speaking in geopolitical abstractions. He was drawing from a script already written and recently road-tested in Venezuela. The question now gripping capitals from Beijing to Riyadh is whether the world’s most volatile oil region is about to become the next chapter in Washington’s resource acquisition doctrine.
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The immediate backdrop is a war now entering its fifth week. The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in late February 2026, triggering a conflict that has rapidly expanded beyond its original military objectives. Oil has breached $100 a barrel. Brent crude futures were trading above $115 per barrel on Monday, heading for what analysts describe as a record monthly surge. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have publicly warned that continued aggression could push crude beyond $200.
Into this volatile environment, Trump dropped what may be his most commercially candid statement yet. “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran,” he told the Financial Times, adding in typically Trump fashion that critics who object are “stupid people.” He specifically pointed to Kharg Island, the strategic coral outcrop responsible for over 90% of Iran’s oil exports, as a potential target. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” he said.
The Venezuela comparison is not rhetorical flourish. It is operational precedent. In January 2026, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. In the weeks that followed, Washington moved systematically to take control of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Trump claimed in his State of the Union address that the U.S. had already secured more than 80 million barrels from Venezuela. The Treasury Department subsequently eased sanctions to allow American businesses to purchase Venezuelan oil and fertiliser, framing the resource extraction as both economic recovery and strategic supply diversification. This is particularly pertinent as US and Israel’s continued war with Iran chokes Persian Gulf shipments.
Analysts watching the Iran situation warn that a Kharg Island operation would carry significantly higher stakes. Unlike Venezuela, Iran sits at the nerve centre of global energy flows. The Strait of Hormuz (through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil transits) remains an active conflict zone. Iran has already demonstrated its willingness to disrupt Gulf infrastructure, with recent strikes targeting energy installations in Kuwait and Qatar. A ground seizure of Kharg Island, the Pentagon is reportedly weighing, would require a sustained military presence and risk triggering full-scale regional retaliation.
Then there is China. Approximately 80% of Iran’s crude exports flow to Beijing, making any American move to seize or shut down Iranian oil production a direct economic provocation against Washington’s principal geopolitical rival. David Roche of Quantum Strategy noted that markets are already pricing in the possibility of “boots on the ground”, and the downstream risks to Saudi pipelines, Suez Canal capacity, and Red Sea shipping lanes.
The diplomatic track has not gone cold. Trump claimed on Sunday that Iran had agreed to “most” of a 15-point peace proposal conveyed through Pakistani intermediaries, including demands for full denuclearisation and limits on Tehran’s missile programme. Iran has publicly rejected the offer and set its own conditions. Even so, Trump described the talks as progressing well and said Iran had allowed oil tankers through the Strait “as a sign of respect.”
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is also considering a separate operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium from Iranian facilities — a move that would eliminate any remaining pathway to a nuclear weapon while simultaneously removing a strategic asset from Tehran’s negotiating hand.
What is emerging, whether by grand design or tactical improvisation, is a doctrine in which military intervention and resource acquisition are no longer kept in separate policy compartments. Venezuela established the template. Iran, if Trump’s stated preferences hold, may be where that template is most consequentially tested.
