Cast your mind’s eye a week back, to the buildup to the US Presidential Elections, and Indians were enamored by seeing Republican candidate Donald Trump reiterate his commitment to strengthening “the great partnership” between the United States of America and India.
Cut to a week later, and Trump has all but sealed his victory in the US Presidential Race. And while there might be a lot of similarities between PM Modi and Trump (they both emphasise domestic growth, have economic policies that are decidedly nationalistic, and are focused on securing their borders, to name but a few facets of similarity), there have also been rumblings of Trump ramping up tariffs on India. For all his talk of referring to Modi as a “good friend”, Trump has gone on the record as pinpointing India as an abuser of import tariffs.
Looking into the crystal ball, how would the outcome of the US Presidential race impact India and the world? We spoke with eminent thinkers and industry luminaries to understand what lies ahead.
“The biggest risk to India and indeed the global economy comes from an ultra-protectionist trade policy likely under a Trump administration. This would slow global trade down with its inevitable knock-on effects on Indian exports. However, from a political perspective a Republican white house has historically favoured India. That would be the case with Trump as well.”
– Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank
“In my view any nation’s foreign policy is always guided by safeguarding self-interest. US is no exception. So, any party which comes to power in US will continue to support India’s emergence as a leading global power and a strategic partner to safeguard the Indo-Pacific as a region of peace, stability, and economic growth and to counterbalance China’s influence.
We may also see efforts on both sides for more balanced trade agreement and efforts to reduce US trade deficit. The earlier trend of growing cooperation in Indo US defence ties will continue. The vibrant Indian American diaspora and the educational exchange between the two countries will remain important catalysts for strengthening people to people ties and enhancing strategic cooperation between both the countries.”
-Manisha Verma, Additional Chief Secretary & MD, Maharashtra State Finance Corporation, Govt of Maharashtra
“I see the outcome of the US elections as a mixed bag. On the one hand the likely protectionist policies may hurt our exports to the US and their outsourcing from India. On the other hand, the affinity between our leaders creates a good platform for partnerships. It is up to us now to make this net positive for India.”
-Rishikesha Krishnan, Director, IIM-Bangalore
“Donald Trump is likely to enhance the ongoing trade ties with India. It will open opportunities for India as more spendings in US are likely, but at the cost of more tariff on exports from India especially Generic drugs, affecting Pharma industry. Medical tourism to India may see a boost.
One plus point will be definite preference to India over China. Six to seven Indian Americans winning seats in the US House of Representatives, is also better than five before and shall be positive news for India.”
-Padmashee Dr. Sood
