In 2024, the world crossed a critical threshold as global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in recorded history. According to Europe’s Copernicus observation agency, average surface temperatures reached 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, marking 2024 as the hottest year on record. Scientists and policymakers alike have described this event as a watershed moment, marking the beginning of unprecedented climate instability.
Why it matters
The implications of surpassing the 1.5°C target are profound. Every fraction of a degree above this limit intensifies the risks of irreversible climate tipping points. The expansion of tropical climates, shifting storm patterns, and diminished polar ice cover signal a destabilizing Earth system. Moreover, the unprecedented warming of oceans, including the North Atlantic and western Pacific, has far-reaching consequences for marine ecosystems, weather systems, and coastal communities.
Multiple Contributing Factors
Several interconnected factors contributed to this unprecedented warming. The primary driver remains human-induced climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. However, additional factors created a perfect storm of warming conditions. The El Niño weather pattern, which officially ended in June 2024, played a significant role in pushing temperatures higher, though it was not the sole culprit. Other significant contributors include the long-term decline in Earth’s albedo (its reflectivity), driven by reduced cloud cover and cleaner air due to stricter sulfur emission regulations.
Additionally, the underwater eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in 2022 introduced greenhouse gases into the stratosphere, further complicating climate dynamics. Solar activity, at its peak in 2024, added a minor but notable contribution to the warming.
A particularly concerning aspect was the unexpected behavior of the world’s oceans, which showed slower cooling patterns than predicted. This suggests possible changes in fundamental climate system dynamics. Additionally, research indicates that Earth has been reflecting less sunlight back into space due to reduced cloud cover, particularly in northern mid-latitudes.
The Indian context
India stands at the crossroads of climate vulnerability and opportunity. The breach of the 1.5°C global warming target underscores the immense risks the country faces and the urgency for decisive action. With nearly a third of its GDP reliant on nature-dependent sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, India is acutely sensitive to climate disruptions. Rising temperatures threaten to destabilize these sectors, jeopardizing livelihoods and food security for millions.
The economic costs of unchecked climate change for India are staggering. Research indicates that by 2100, climate impacts could slash the country’s GDP by 6.4% to over 10%, potentially pushing 50 million people back into poverty. Furthermore, Deloitte’s analysis warns that failing to curb global temperature increases could lead to $35 trillion in lost economic potential over the next five decades. Rising sea levels, declining crop yields, and infrastructure damage are just a few of the devastating consequences awaiting a 3°C rise in global temperatures.
India is already experiencing the repercussions of climate change. Extreme heatwaves, erratic monsoons, and intensifying droughts are becoming more frequent, threatening lives and livelihoods. Air pollution exacerbates the crisis, claiming over a million lives annually and reducing life expectancy for millions of Indians by nearly a decade. The societal and economic toll of inaction is clear.
However, India’s challenges also present a unique opportunity. By leading the global transition to a green economy, the nation could unlock $11 trillion in economic value. As a leader in advanced climate solutions like green hydrogen and negative-emission technologies, India is well-positioned to become a global supplier of the tools and technologies necessary to combat climate change. Embracing sustainability is not only essential for India’s survival but also a pathway to unprecedented economic growth and global leadership in climate innovation.
What comes next?
While the natural cooling phase of La Niña may bring temporary relief in 2025, the long-term trend points to a hotter and more volatile planet. The breach highlights the urgent need for a unified global response, including accelerating the transition to renewable energy, implementing stricter emissions targets, and enhancing climate resilience.
Global warming is no longer a distant threat but an unfolding crisis demanding immediate action. The events of 2024 serve as a sobering reminder that delays in addressing climate change have grave consequences for all of humanity. The breach serves as a clear signal that climate change is not a distant threat but a present reality requiring immediate and sustained action.
