Trump gives Iran ‘last chance’ on Hormuz as potential military escalation looms

The fragile diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions in the Persian Gulf entered a critical phase on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump warned Iran to reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz “today or tomorrow” or face what he described as devastating military action.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump said he wanted to give Tehran “every last chance before decapitation,” framing the coming days as a decisive moment in a conflict that has disrupted global energy markets and heightened fears of a wider regional war.

The remarks followed Trump’s decision over the weekend to halt what he described as a major planned attack on Iran, reportedly involving Israel, in favour of allowing diplomacy one final opportunity.

At the centre of the negotiations is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints through which roughly a fifth of global oil trade normally passes. Since the conflict escalated earlier this year, commercial shipping through the waterway has been severely disrupted, forcing vessels to take longer or more closely monitored routes and pushing energy prices sharply higher.

Diplomatic efforts are currently being led by Oman, which is attempting to broker an agreement allowing greater freedom of navigation through the strait. However, there is little indication that Tehran is prepared to soften its position.

Iran maintains that it has the sovereign right to regulate maritime traffic in the waterway and has insisted that foreign vessels comply with its conditions before transiting the strait. Tehran has also rejected suggestions that negotiations with Washington are underway, stating that its discussions are exclusively with Oman over shipping arrangements rather than a broader peace agreement.

That divergence has exposed the gap between Washington’s public messaging and Tehran’s negotiating stance.

Trump has repeatedly suggested that a comprehensive agreement is within reach, including one covering both the reopening of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme. Iranian officials, however, have dismissed those claims, insisting no direct negotiations with the United States are taking place.

The disagreement reflects the increasingly complex dynamics of a conflict that has, paradoxically, strengthened some of Iran’s leverage despite sustained US military pressure.

By maintaining its ability to disrupt shipping through Hormuz, Iran continues to exert influence over global energy markets. Brent crude rose 1.8 percent on Tuesday to around $85 per barrel, although prices remain below last week’s highs after Trump’s decision to postpone additional strikes briefly eased market concerns.

Analysts warn that any renewed military escalation could trigger another sharp spike in oil prices, with consequences extending far beyond the Middle East.

The timing is particularly delicate for the White House. With US midterm elections approaching in November, rising fuel prices have become an increasingly significant political challenge. Public support for prolonged military involvement has also weakened, placing additional pressure on the administration to secure a diplomatic breakthrough while avoiding perceptions of strategic retreat.

Iran, meanwhile, has shown little willingness to negotiate from a position of weakness. Senior Iranian officials have warned that US military bases and naval assets across the Gulf would face serious retaliation if Washington launches another large-scale offensive or continues its blockade of Iranian ports.

Regional allies including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait also remain vulnerable to any escalation, given Iran’s demonstrated missile capabilities throughout the conflict.

Political analysts argue that both leaders now face a difficult balancing act. Trump has frequently issued military ultimatums only to delay or reverse them in favour of renewed diplomacy, while Iran has combined military pressure with carefully calibrated negotiations aimed at preserving its strategic leverage.

For now, Oman remains the principal diplomatic channel between the two sides. Whether that mediation succeeds may determine not only the future of the Strait of Hormuz but also the direction of global energy markets and regional security in the weeks ahead.

With both Washington and Tehran hardening their public positions, the coming days could prove decisive in determining whether the crisis moves toward a negotiated settlement or a far more dangerous military confrontation.