Here’s why Elon Musk might need India more than he cares to admit

Elon Musk, the visionary behind Tesla, has had a complicated relationship with India. After much anticipation and speculation, the billionaire entrepreneur recently postponed his much-awaited visit to the country, leaving many to wonder what’s really going on behind the scenes.

According to sources, Musk’s team has not made any further inquiries with officials in New Delhi after the postponement of the India visit in late April. The government has been given to understand that Tesla is facing capital issues and doesn’t plan on pledging fresh investment into the country anytime soon. This raises eyebrows, as Tesla has been known for its ambitious global expansion plans. Could it be that the electric vehicle (EV) giant is facing some unexpected financial hurdles, as evinced in recent workforce rationalisation?

The BYD surge and Tesla’s shifting fortunes

The landscape of the EV market is constantly evolving, and the latest developments suggest that Tesla’s dominance may be under threat.

In the first half of 2024, Tesla’s US sales fell eight percent, and the story is even worse in Europe, where the brand saw a 13 percent drop in numbers. Tesla and Volkswagen (VW) were the biggest losers, with the former’s market share slipping from 19.8 percent to 17.2 percent. Only Volkswagen did worse than Tesla across Europe, with the German giant’s share sliding from 22 percent to 18.7 percent.

BMW and Chinese OEMs were the biggest beneficiaries of Tesla and VW losing ground, as the Geely Group made major inroads thanks to the success of Volvo’s compact EX30. BMW continues to enjoy success with its recent launches, even if its core enthusiast customer cries foul and decries the brand’s shift away from its core driving pleasure ethos. BYD too gained ground on Tesla, as the competition heats up significantly for Musk.

It isn’t as if the market is slowing down either in Europe. Total EV registrations increased by 1.7 percent, even as Tesla’s volumes slumped from 185,200 units in the first half of 2023 to 161,300 units for the same period in 2024.

On home ground too, Tesla isn’t faring too well. Sales volumes dropped from 324,900 units in the first half of 2023 to 299,200 units this year, even as overall EV sales increased by 7.6 percent. Ford (48%), Rivian (77%), and the Korean due of Hyundai (34%) and Kia (1110%) are showing particularly strong increases.

The Cybertruck expected to drive sales strongly for the brand, has been a damp squib for the brand, with the company selling just 11,300 units in the US through the first half of 2024. The shift in market dynamics could be a wake-up call for Musk, who may need to reconsider his strategy and look for new avenues of growth.

Interestingly, many industry experts believe that Tesla’s latest quarterly numbers might be the catalyst that forces Musk to rethink his reported shelving of the India plan. As the company navigates the shifting global EV landscape, the performance of its financial reports could be a crucial factor in determining its future course of action.

The India opportunity: A double-edged sword?

In the wake of Tesla’s apparent reluctance to enter the Indian market, the government is said to be considering changes to its EV policy. The current policy, which aims to attract fresh investments like Tesla’s, may be revised to favor automakers who have already made investments in the country. This could mean that if Tesla delays its entry, it may no longer find the Indian market as attractive as it once did.

As Tesla contemplates its next move, the company’s component suppliers are already reportedly scouting for locations to either kick-start or expand their operations in India. State governments, including Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, are actively courting these suppliers, believing that Tesla would be more likely to set up shop where its supplier ecosystem is already established. This suggests that the Indian market may hold more sway over Tesla’s plans than the company is willing to admit.

The Tata and Vinfast factor

Adding to the complexity of the situation, India’s automotive landscape is also undergoing a significant transformation. Tata Motors and Vietnamese automaker Vinfast have both set up massive manufacturing plants in Tamil Nadu, further solidifying the state’s position as a hub for the EV industry. This could make it even more enticing for Tesla’s suppliers to establish a presence in the region, potentially drawing the EV giant closer to the Indian market.

Tesla is known for its preference for a local supply system to accelerate production and save time and costs associated with transporting components. This could make India an attractive destination for the company, as it seeks to optimize its operations and capitalize on the growing EV market.

The Shifting Global EV Landscape

As the world grapples with the challenges of climate change and the push for sustainable mobility, the EV market has become a battleground for industry titans. Tesla’s hesitation to enter the Indian market could be a sign of a broader shift in the global EV landscape, where new players and emerging markets are challenging the established order.

Musk’s apparent reluctance to commit to the Indian market may be a calculated move, as he navigates the complexities of global expansion and the ever-changing EV landscape. By taking a cautious approach, the Tesla CEO may be positioning his company for long-term success, even if it means forgoing short-term opportunities.

Elon Musk’s will-he-won’t-he love affair with India’s EV market will have far-reaching implications for the future of the industry. As the world watches with keen interest, it’s clear that Musk’s need for India may be greater than he’s willing to admit, and the country’s potential as an EV powerhouse could be the key to energising Tesla’s plans for global dominance.