Pakistan will lose 90 percent of its agriculture if Indus water treaty revoked
The seeds of one of South Asia’s most persistent disputes were sown not just on the soil of divided Punjab, but in a tense meeting room weeks before the partition of British India. At the heart of this geopolitical flashpoint lies the Indus River system—a vital lifeline for Pakistan and a strategic asset for India. The origin of the India-Pakistan water conflict dates back to 1947, when Cyril Radcliffe, the man tasked with drawing the boundary between the two nations, proposed a shared management of the irrigation system. His suggestion earned him sharp rebukes from both Jawaharlal Nehru and Muhammad Ali Jinnah, exposing early distrust and setting the tone for decades of water-related tensions.
The Roots of the Conflict
Punjab’s massive irrigation network—engineered largely by British designers with Sikh financing and labour—channelled water from five eastern rivers to arid regions in the west, which post-partition became Pakistan. However, the river sources remained within Indian territory. Understanding the looming challenge, Radcliffe floated the idea of a joint Indo-Pak water authority. Jinnah dismissed the notion, insisting he would prefer barren deserts over fields watered at India’s discretion. Nehru was equally dismissive, asserting India’s sovereign right over its rivers.
With joint management ruled out, a stopgap “Standstill Agreement” was signed in December 1947, ensuring temporary water flow until March 1948. But after the deadline lapsed, India halted water supply from Ferozepur on April 1, triggering the first formal water-related confrontation. Though a quick resolution followed in May 1948—restoring flow under conditions that respected India’s developmental rights—Pakistan later claimed it signed the agreement under duress.
Birth of the Indus Waters Treaty
A more sustainable solution emerged only in 1960, thanks to mediation by the World Bank. After nine years of negotiations, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which remains one of the few enduring agreements between the two nations.
Under the Treaty
-India received exclusive control over the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
-Pakistan received control over the western rivers which includes Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
-India could use western rivers for non-consumptive purposes (like hydropower) under strict guidelines.
-A Permanent Indus Commission was created to resolve disputes.
Why the Treaty Matters to Pakistan
For Pakistan, the Indus system is not just a water source—it is a national artery. Nearly 90% of its agriculture and a large share of its drinking water depend on the Indus and its tributaries. Any disruption in water supply would:
- Severely impact food production.
- Create economic and political instability.
- Deepen water insecurity in a nation already facing climate-induced stress.
Modern-Day Tensions and Legal Battles
Despite the Treaty’s durability, mistrust has simmered. In 2011, Pakistan challenged India’s Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, arguing that India’s upstream activities threatened its water security. India, in turn, defended its actions as being within the Treaty’s bounds and dismissed historical grievances as irrelevant to present-day agreements.
More recently, India signalled a pause in the Treaty’s implementation, citing Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism and lack of trust-building efforts. While no water supply has yet been cut off, the possibility has reopened old wounds.
What Happens if India Shuts Off the Water?
Though technically difficult and diplomatically risky if India were to significantly restrict water flow:
- Pakistan’s agricultural heartland could suffer catastrophic losses.
- Hydropower generation could decline, triggering energy shortages.
- Urban water supplies could be disrupted, especially in Punjab and Sindh.
- The region’s fragile peace could deteriorate, risking open conflict.
Water as a Weapon or a Bridge?
The Indus Waters Treaty has withstood wars, political upheavals, and mutual suspicion. But its future is no longer guaranteed. As climate change exacerbates water scarcity and bilateral ties remain strained, the Treaty stands at a crossroads. Will it continue to serve as a rare bridge between rivals, or become the next battleground in an already volatile region?
The story of Indus waters is not just about rivers—it is about trust, legacy, and survival. And that story began with Nehru and Jinnah’s refusal to share control.
