Beyond the Indus Water Treaty, India Must Create a Strategic Water Advantage

Over six decades old, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has been in the news for all the wrong reasons.

This treaty signed between India and Pakistan governs nearly 80% of the basin’s flows, and India’s suspension of the treaty could stem water flow to Pakistan, but this will take time and the creation of infrastructure to do so.

And beyond tensions with prickly neighbours, growing domestic water scarcity is testing its limits. India’s western rivers—the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus—collectively discharge roughly 135–145 million acre-feet (MAF) annually into Pakistan.

To grasp the scale: 1 MAF would flood Delhi’s entire expanse nearly three times over to a depth of one foot. Faced with surging demand in northern India and stagnant storage capacity, policymakers are exploring how to optimize these waters for national development without breaching legal obligations.

The Storage Conundrum

Current hydropower projects on these rivers function like computer RAM—high throughput but no long-term storage. Combined, they hold just 1.2–3.6 MAF in active reservoirs, compared with the 24 MAF capacity of Bhakra-Nangal alone multiplied by factor of twenty-four to match annual flows. Given the impossibility of erecting two dozen Bhakra-sized dams within a decade, alternative strategies are essential.

Learning from China’s South-North Water Transfer

China’s ambitious South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) shifts about 36 MAF over 2,900 km to alleviate shortages in its arid northwestern provinces. While replication at this scale may be unrealistic, the underlying principle—redistributing surplus flows to deficit zones—offers a conceptual blueprint.

A Six-Canal Network for Northern India

A pragmatic first phase involves six parallel canals, each 40 m wide, channeling 28–36 MAF from the Jhelum and Chenab across roughly 3,000 km of plains. These “water highways” would traverse Jammu through Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Gujarat—regions collectively facing annual deficits of 8–15 MAF in Punjab and Haryana, 10–15 MAF in Uttar Pradesh, and over 1 MAF in Delhi. By meeting up to 75% of these shortfalls, the canal system would:

• Boost agricultural productivity: Stabilize irrigation for rice-wheat belts and emerging horticulture zones, potentially adding $50–100 billion annually in farm output.
• Alleviate groundwater depletion: Slow aquifer drawdowns in critically stressed regions.
• Enhance urban resilience: Secure water for the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and expanding satellite cities.

Balancing Cost, Politics and Environment

Estimated at ₹5 lakh crore over ten years, land acquisition is likely manageable given farmer support for reliable irrigation. Nonetheless, environmental impact assessments and community consultations are crucial to safeguard wetlands, manage aquifer recharge, and minimize displacement.

Strategic Geopolitical Leverage

Diverting a quarter of treaty-allocated waters would recalibrate India’s negotiating position without nullifying the IWT itself. Incremental implementation—expanding storage and canals—could be framed as domestic development, sidestepping direct treaty confrontation. Simultaneously, India could engage Pakistan on cooperative frameworks for flood control and data-sharing, preserving diplomatic channels.

Complementary Measures for Long-Term Resilience

• Targeted dam expansion: Small to medium reservoirs on tributaries to buffer monsoon variability.
• Demand management: Smart metering, micro-irrigation, and crop diversification to reduce per-hectare water intensity.
• Recharge initiatives: Rural watershed development to bolster groundwater stocks.

A Ten-Year Vision for Water Sovereignty

India’s water future hinges on a balanced portfolio: strategic canal networks to unlock surplus flows; incremental storage augmentation; and robust demand-side reforms. By adopting a phased, data-driven approach—and maintaining treaty compliance—India can bolster its agricultural heartland, sustain urban growth corridors, and enhance rural livelihoods. In doing so, it secures not only domestic water security but also the geopolitical vibrancy of South Asia.