In Tianjin, the dragon, the elephant, and the bear showed the world that in an era of trade wars and shifting alliances, they see strength in unity. For Modi, it was a message of defiance—and a declaration that India’s path will be guided by its own choices, not Washington’s diktats.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first trip to China in seven years has marked a defining moment in India’s foreign policy. At a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is weaponizing tariffs and publicly lambasting New Delhi over its energy trade with Moscow, India has moved to solidify its ties with China and Russia, signaling that it is prepared to chart an independent course even at the expense of Washington’s goodwill.
A Reset With China
In Tianjin, Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. It was a carefully choreographed encounter designed to emphasize partnership, not rivalry. The two leaders pledged to resume direct flights, expand trade, and seek greater cooperation on security issues.
For both capitals, the symbolism was as important as the substance. India and China have been locked in a tense standoff along their disputed 3,488-kilometer border, a sore point that has defined relations for years. While mistrust lingers, the prospect of joint economic gain has nudged both sides to look past their differences. “The international situation is both fluid and chaotic,” Xi said, urging China and India to be “friends who have good neighborly and amicable ties.”
Jeremy Chan of the Eurasia Group cautioned that the strategic rivalry has not disappeared. But the willingness to engage at a high level shows both countries recognize the destabilizing impact of Trump’s economic nationalism and the need to secure alternative partnerships.
A Hug Heard Around the World
If Modi’s handshake with Xi was meant to convey pragmatism, his embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message of defiance. The two leaders met warmly in China, before riding together to a bilateral session. For Washington, the optics were striking: the leader of the world’s largest democracy reaffirming ties with a Kremlin increasingly isolated in the West.
Trump has accused India of bankrolling Putin’s war in Ukraine, pointing to discounted Russian crude purchases that Indian refiners have processed and sold onward to Europe. His administration’s response has been punitive: a sweeping 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, the highest rate Washington has applied to any Asian country. The move, economists warn, could shave nearly a full percentage point off India’s growth this year.
Yet Modi showed no signs of retreat. “President Putin and I traveled together to the venue of our bilateral meeting,” he posted on X. “Conversations with him are always insightful.” That public display of camaraderie underscored New Delhi’s calculation: in a volatile geopolitical climate, it cannot afford to abandon an old partner.
Trump’s Pressure and India’s Defiance
The Trump administration has framed India’s actions as cynical profiteering. Peter Navarro, one of Trump’s most vocal aides, branded India “a laundromat for the Kremlin,” arguing it had become a conduit for Russian oil revenue. But Indian officials counter that their energy ties with Moscow predate the Ukraine war and that U.S. administrations once tacitly supported such purchases to stabilize global prices.
For New Delhi, the deeper issue is reliability. Trump’s tariffs and public broadsides have reinforced doubts about Washington’s constancy as a partner. “It’s important for countries like India to find its own path and own partners,” said Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian ambassador. That sentiment reflects a broader recalibration in Indian foreign policy: engagement with Washington where possible, but no dependence.
The SCO as a Counterweight
The Tianjin summit itself highlighted the shifting balance of power. Xi Jinping announced new grants and loans for SCO members, expanded scholarship programs, and reiterated calls for a development bank to cement the bloc’s financial infrastructure. While modest compared with Beijing’s commitments to Africa, these initiatives reflect a long-term ambition: building parallel institutions outside the U.S.-led order.
India’s participation alongside Russia, China, Iran, and Central Asian states gives the SCO increasing heft. For Modi, it also provides a platform to demonstrate that India is not isolated despite Washington’s pressure. The embrace of Putin and handshake with Xi, broadcast across global media, were more than personal gestures—they were a diplomatic signal that India sees value in multipolar engagement.
Balancing Principles and Pragmatism
Critics point out that Modi’s actions sit uncomfortably with India’s calls for peace in Ukraine. Ahead of his China trip, Modi spoke to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reaffirming India’s readiness to “deliver the appropriate signal to Russia and other leaders.” Yet the optics of embracing Putin complicate that message.
Still, India has long walked this tightrope. Its defense partnership with Russia remains deep, while its growing technology and investment ties with the West continue apace. The challenge is preserving autonomy in a polarized world. As Trump leans into punitive tariffs and inflammatory rhetoric, India appears more determined than ever to maintain that balancing act.
Japan and Beyond
Notably, Modi’s itinerary before Tianjin included a stop in Tokyo, where he secured a pledge of ¥10 trillion ($68 billion) in Japanese investment. The deal spans semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy, and space—areas crucial for India’s long-term economic strategy. It underscores New Delhi’s determination to diversify partnerships: even as it embraces Russia and seeks rapprochement with China, it is deepening ties with democratic allies in Asia.
This hedging reflects India’s pragmatic worldview. It cannot afford to alienate Washington entirely, but nor can it risk overreliance on a partner that has proven erratic. Engagement with Japan, China, and Russia provides balance, while domestic reforms aim to soften the blow of tariffs and stimulate internal demand.
A Defining Moment
The spectacle of Modi, Xi, and Putin huddling together in Tianjin encapsulated the new geopolitical reality. Trump’s tariffs and combative stance have accelerated dynamics already underway: India seeking new markets, China leveraging discontent with Washington to expand its influence, and Russia turning eastward as Europe closes its doors.
For India, the path forward will not be simple. Border disputes with China remain unresolved, and Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to test international norms. But by refusing to bow to U.S. pressure, Modi has signaled that New Delhi intends to pursue a sovereign foreign policy, anchored in multiple partnerships rather than a single alliance.
As the world grapples with economic fragmentation and geopolitical uncertainty, the moves in Tianjin show that India, China, and Russia see opportunity in defiance. Whether this realignment endures will depend on how far each side is willing to set aside rivalry for cooperation. For now, however, the message is clear: New Delhi will not be strong-armed, and Trump’s tariffs may have accelerated the very multipolar world Washington sought to contain.
