The global solar power industry is undergoing a tectonic shift, as geopolitical tremors reshape supply chains and realign market dynamics. At the epicenter is the United States, which recently announced crippling duties—up to 3,521%—on solar equipment imported from Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand. These countries, often hosting Chinese-owned factories, have been accused of dumping ultra-cheap solar products into the US, undercutting local producers.
Caught in the crossfire are Chinese solar giants like Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar, whose dominance has long defined the market. But in every shake-up lies an opportunity—and for India, this could be a defining moment.
Tariffs as a Turning Point
The punitive US tariffs create an immediate vacuum in the supply chain. Together, the four Southeast Asian nations accounted for more than 75% of the US’s $12 billion solar imports in 2023. With the playing field suddenly tilted, US buyers are scrambling for reliable, tariff-free alternatives. India, already on the cusp of a solar surge, emerges as a viable and compelling option.
India’s solar equipment manufacturers like Waaree Energies, Vikram Solar, and Premier Energies are already feeling the tailwinds. Stock prices of leading players surged up to 6% following the tariff announcement. India, with its 36% export duty to the US—the lowest among major exporting nations—now looks increasingly attractive for American companies seeking to stabilize supply.
The Export Opportunity
India’s photovoltaic (PV) module exports to the US have soared in recent years. From FY22 to FY24, exports grew 23-fold, reaching $2 billion—97% of which were destined for the US. This is not a passing trend but a systemic shift. Industry giants like Adani Solar, Waaree, and Vikram have already been exporting over half of their production to the US, with plans to deepen that footprint further.
To cement its position, Indian firms are investing directly into the American manufacturing ecosystem. Waaree Energies has established a 1.6 GW PV module manufacturing unit in Texas. Vikram Solar is following suit, pledging $1.5 billion for a facility in Colorado. These moves not only solidify long-term ties with the US but also signal strategic alignment with the Biden administration’s “Made in America” push for clean energy.
Domestic Growth Fuels Global Ambitions
Back home, India is witnessing a solar renaissance. The nation recently crossed the milestone of 100 GW of installed solar capacity, spanning utility-scale projects, rooftop setups, and off-grid systems. Solar cell manufacturing capacity has nearly tripled to 25 GW in just a year, and plans are afoot to double this again—creating a potential surplus ripe for export.
This domestic momentum, bolstered by policies like Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) and safeguard duties on Chinese imports, gives Indian manufacturers a sturdy launchpad for global expansion.
Caveats and Challenges
Yet, the opportunity comes with a caution label.
India’s solar manufacturing sector remains heavily reliant on China for upstream inputs—wafers, polysilicon, machinery, and specialty chemicals. In a prolonged or escalating trade war, there’s a tangible risk of Beijing restricting access to these critical supplies. As BloombergNEF analyst Rohit Gadre notes, “China could snap the supply chain,” threatening India’s ability to meet surging demand at home and abroad.
Industry insiders also worry about quality. While alternate suppliers to Chinese firms do exist, they often fail to meet global standards—jeopardizing India’s hard-won credibility in premium export markets like the US and Europe.
To mitigate these risks, India must accelerate investments in backward integration, innovation, and quality assurance. Initiatives to build a self-sustained solar ecosystem—from polysilicon to modules—could serve as a shield against future geopolitical uncertainties.
The Geopolitical Undercurrent
These developments are not unfolding in isolation. The US solar tariff decision is deeply rooted in its broader strategy to curb China’s economic clout, particularly in sectors like clean tech that are critical to national security and climate goals.
For India, this is more than an export opportunity—it’s a diplomatic and economic convergence. New Delhi’s closer alignment with Washington across trade, defense, and green energy agendas is creating fertile ground for long-term strategic cooperation. India’s “friendshoring” appeal—trusted, democratic, and increasingly capable—resonates strongly in this new world order.
Long-Term Potential
What lies ahead for India’s solar export ambitions?
Much depends on how fast and how boldly Indian firms move to capture this moment. The window is open, but competition looms—not just from China, which may reorient exports via other channels, but from emerging players in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Africa.
For India to consolidate its new-found edge, it must marry policy with pragmatism. This means smoother land acquisition for factories, faster clearances, easier access to finance, and aggressive R&D investments. It also means doubling down on global outreach, marketing “Made in India” solar as a reliable, sustainable, and premium brand.
If done right, India could move beyond being a substitute supplier. It could become a solar superpower—defining the next chapter in clean energy leadership.
