After a prolonged period of relative stability, COVID-19 cases are once again on the rise across several Asian countries, prompting fresh concerns over potential new waves and the effectiveness of existing immunity. While nations like Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, and China are witnessing a visible spike in infections and hospitalisations, India is currently reporting a mild increase. However, health authorities remain vigilant, given the possibility of a wider spread triggered by emerging variants.
Spike in Cases Across Asia Raises Alarm
In the last few weeks, countries such as Singapore, Thailand, and Hong Kong have reported a sharp uptick in COVID-19 cases. According to Singapore’s Ministry of Health, infections rose from 11,100 to 14,200 in just one week (April 27 to May 3, 2025). Hospital admissions also increased, though intensive care unit (ICU) cases remained low. Officials noted that most individuals being treated for COVID-19 symptoms had not received a booster shot in over a year, suggesting waning immunity could be a major factor.
Thailand reported over 33,000 cases in just six days (May 11 to May 17), with more than 6,000 from the capital, Bangkok alone. The country’s Department of Disease Control identified the Omicron subvariant XEC as the primary cause, likely exacerbated by mass gatherings during the Songkran holiday in April.
Hong Kong also reported a notable increase in COVID-19 positivity rates, from 6.21% to 13.66% between April 6 and May 12. Dr. Edwin Tsui of the Centre for Health Protection (CHP) stated that COVID-19 has taken on a periodic pattern in Hong Kong, with new waves appearing every six to nine months due to evolving variants and falling immunity.
In China, COVID-19 positivity rates climbed sharply between March 31 and May 4. Among patients with flu-like symptoms, the rate rose from 7.5% to 16.2%, and for hospitalised individuals, it doubled from 3.3% to 6.3%. Health authorities in all these countries believe the resurgence is driven by newer strains of the virus combined with a decline in population-level immunity.
New Variants and Waning Immunity Driving the Surge
According to Singapore’s health ministry, the rise in COVID-19 cases can largely be attributed to two sublineages of the JN.1 variant—LF.7 and NB.1.8. These variants are responsible for over two-thirds of all locally sequenced cases in Singapore. JN.1, which emerged in 2024, is a descendant of the Omicron BA.2.86 variant and was designated a variant of interest by the World Health Organisation in late 2023. The variants currently circulating are believed to be more adept at evading immunity from prior infections or vaccinations.
Besides waning immunity and evolving variants, seasonal factors, international travel, and large-scale social gatherings are all contributing to the uptick in cases across Asia. Most of the new cases are reportedly mild, but the rising numbers serve as a reminder that COVID-19 remains an active global health concern.
India Reports Mild Rise, But Maintains Vigilance
India has so far remained largely unaffected by the sharp increases seen in neighbouring countries. As per the latest government data, there are currently 257 active COVID-19 cases across the country, with Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra accounting for the bulk of these infections. Officials say that most of the cases are mild, with no unusual patterns in severity or mortality.
A high-level meeting was convened recently under the Director General of Health Services, with inputs from the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), and central government hospitals. Authorities reviewed the emerging global trends and current domestic situation, with an emphasis on preparedness, testing, and genomic surveillance. Although the JN.1 variant and its subline ages are circulating widely in Southeast Asia, India has not yet confirmed their presence in significant numbers.
What Lies Ahead
Experts caution that India should not let its guard down. While the current numbers are not alarming, they may be the beginning of another potential wave, especially if new variants gain a foothold. A gradual decrease in population immunity and low booster uptake could make India susceptible to the same surge patterns seen in other Asian nations.
Health authorities continue to urge precautionary measures such as timely vaccination, especially for high-risk groups, and adherence to public health advisories. The experience of the last few years underscores the need for sustained vigilance, even when case numbers appear low.
India’s Covid-19 dashboard might reflect stability for now, but the situation in neighbouring countries serves as a cautionary tale. With global variants evolving and immunity waning, the question is not whether another wave is possible, but whether we are ready for it.
