There’s something intriguing about Mrunal Thakur and Adivi Sesh starrer Dacoit: A Love Story. On paper, it has all the ingredients – intense action, a love-revenge arc, and two actors who have created strong reputations for themselves outside of pure “star” power. But the big question remains: will it actually translate into box office numbers?
As far as the basics are concerned, reportedly, the production cost of Dacoit is about Rs. 70 crore. That immediately puts it in the “mid-range risk” category. It means that the film is too big to quietly recover costs, yet not massive enough to guarantee footfalls on hype alone. According to trade experts, Dacoit may expect to need at least Rs. 70 crores in gross revenue from India to enter the safe zone, and ideally push towards Rs. 75–80 crore to be considered a clean hit.
Here’s where it begins to get interesting. Despite what would be expected from such a film, there was only moderate interest being generated leading up to release (as present in advance ticket sales), and when compared to the grand openings of top-tier films from Tollywood, it was not at all comparable. Early estimates indicate that this film should open at around Rs. 2.5-3 crore rupees in gross, thus placing it in the average to below-average opening category.
And that’s a concern, because films like this rely heavily on word-of-mouth after day one.
Early reactions seem to reflect that uncertainty. The film has opened to mixed responses, with people liking the action and the performances in the movie, but they didn’t seem to relate quite so well to the actual storyline. Hence, there is uncertainty as to how the movie will perform during the next few weeks; either it will continue to have good growth or drop off sharply after the first day.
Another key factor to keep in mind is that both leads have a strong track record of success. Adivi Sesh has been able to establish himself with audiences by making good content-driven films, and, most of all, he has had a very good number of box office hits in the past (Major and HIT 2). This is a major plus for Dacoit because usually when you look at the trajectory of a film, if the film has a lot of audience after the opening day, you can expect that the movie is going to grow substantially.
In Mrunal Thakur’s case, I think she comes into this movie having a mixed level of success. While she had tremendous success early in her career with films like Sita Ramam and Hi Nanna, she has also had a less successful year at the box office with her most recent Hindi film, Do Deewane Seher Mein. As a result, I think it will be very important for Dacoit to re-establish her film career to develop her commercial momentum.
So where does that leave the film?
Realistically, the film is not going to be a huge commercial success. Its true success will depend on its durability. If it gets good word-of-mouth and sustains through the week, it could have a lifetime gross of Rs. 70-80 crore, which would define it as a success. However, if the mixed reviews lead to weak footfalls, it will likely land in the “average to below average” category.
In short, Dacoit does not need explosive box office numbers; it needs legs. And in today’s box office climate, that’s often the harder heist to pull off.
