In the global aviation industry, few rivalries are as entrenched—and as lucrative—as that of Airbus and Boeing. These aerospace titans have long dominated the skies, shaping airline fleets, aviation policies, and the pace of technological advancement in commercial aviation. But in recent years, a new challenger has emerged from the East, determined to end the duopoly. China’s state-owned aircraft manufacturer, COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China), has ambitious plans to become the third pillar of global aviation.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. With Boeing reeling from a series of safety issues and supply chain setbacks, and Airbus battling production delays, a window of opportunity has opened. But can COMAC truly seize it?
A Fragmenting Duopoly
Boeing’s troubles are significant. A high-profile safety scare involving a panel blowing off a 737 Max in January reignited scrutiny of its most popular model, already marred by previous disasters. The crash of Air India flight AI-171—marking the first fatality involving a 787 Dreamliner—has only added to the perception of a manufacturer in turmoil. Production slowdowns and regulatory investigations have left customers frustrated and competitors emboldened.
Airbus, though faring better, isn’t unscathed. Supply chain snags have thrown a wrench into its plans to ramp up output. With 8,726 aircraft in its backlog and current production rates, Airbus will take more than a decade to fulfill its commitments. Boeing faces a similar timeline with 6,319 orders pending.
Despite these challenges, both companies continue to dominate the market, sharing between them nearly every narrowbody and widebody jet that takes off around the globe. Combined, their pending orders are worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Yet the skies are shifting.
The COMAC C919: China’s Opening Gambit
At the center of China’s aviation ambitions is the C919, COMAC’s single-aisle jet designed to rival the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 Max. Backed by an estimated $70 billion in state subsidies, the C919 took its first flight in 2017 after over a decade of development. Since then, six units have been delivered to customers—mostly within China—with more than 1,000 orders reportedly lined up.
China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and China Southern Airlines have begun using the jet on domestic routes. The C919 is set to expand into Southeast Asia by 2026, as part of COMAC’s gradual push toward global market share. But there’s a long runway ahead before the jet can fly freely across Western skies, both literally and figuratively.
The C919 still awaits certification from major aviation regulators outside China. Its range and performance also fall short of the benchmarks set by Airbus and Boeing. Western airlines remain cautious, if not outright skeptical, of the aircraft’s safety standards, reliability, and after-sales support—critical considerations in fleet management.
The Steep Climb Ahead
The challenge for COMAC isn’t just technical—it’s systemic. The barriers to entering the large passenger jet market are among the highest in any industry. Developing a new aircraft from scratch can cost $20–30 billion and take over a decade. Success isn’t guaranteed, as evidenced by failed efforts from Mitsubishi (SpaceJet) and the stagnation of Russia’s MC-21 project.
Even Brazil’s Embraer, which has long produced highly regarded regional jets, remains hesitant to fully enter the fray. The cautionary tale of Canada’s Bombardier looms large; its CSeries project faltered under financial pressure and a U.S.-imposed tariff, leading to a forced sale to Airbus, which now markets the aircraft as the A220.
Then there’s the operational moat: Airbus and Boeing have decades-old global service networks, fleet maintenance ecosystems, and financial partnerships that COMAC lacks. Airlines prefer single-make fleets for cost and training efficiencies. To persuade them to switch, COMAC would need to not only match the incumbents on price and performance—but build out global trust.
A Domestic Stronghold, and a Strategic Slow Burn
COMAC’s short-term strength lies at home. China’s domestic aviation market is booming, with demand projected for over 6,000 new short-haul aircraft over the next two decades. Rob Morris of aviation consultancy Cirium estimates that COMAC could claim 20–30% of that market, giving it a crucial beachhead.
But scaling production is a major hurdle. COMAC currently produces around one C919 a month. Even if it ramps up to 150 annually within five years—a stretch goal—it would still represent less than 10% of the estimated 1,800 short-haul jets sold each year. Airbus expects to make 75 A320s a month by 2027, and Boeing hopes to push 737 Max production to 50 a month by 2026.
There’s also the matter of supply chain autonomy. Of the 82 suppliers supporting the C919, only 14 are Chinese. Critical systems still come from Western firms, exposing COMAC to export controls and geopolitical risks. Beijing is actively working to address this, including exploring entry into the jet engine market—a domain long dominated by GE, Rolls-Royce, and Pratt & Whitney.
The Long Haul: C929 and Beyond
If the C919 is COMAC’s foothold, then the C929 is its next battleground. The twin-aisle widebody, currently in development, would compete with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A330. Also in the pipeline is the C939, a potential rival to the larger Boeing 777 and Airbus A350.
These projects are still nascent, and timelines are murky. But they indicate a clear trajectory: COMAC is not merely aiming to break into the single-aisle segment. It’s building an ecosystem for long-haul, widebody aircraft that could reshape global aviation over the coming decades.
There are already signs of international interest. Saudi Arabia’s aviation regulator signed a preliminary deal with COMAC to explore aircraft assembly in the kingdom, signaling that some emerging markets are open to alternatives to the duopoly.
But the real prize remains Western certification and orders from major global carriers. Until COMAC proves itself in those markets, its challenge to Airbus and Boeing will remain regional.
Soaring Ambition Meets Geopolitical Headwinds
COMAC’s rise is not just about aviation—it’s a manifestation of China’s broader ambition to ascend the global technological value chain. The Chinese government sees aviation as a strategic industry, just like semiconductors and electric vehicles.
Yet geopolitics looms large. Western regulators will be cautious, airlines will be risk-averse, and politicians may balk at buying aircraft from a rival superpower. Just as the U.S. stymied Huawei’s rise in 5G, it could move to restrict COMAC’s progress through export controls or certification delays.
Still, history offers a sobering reminder: Airbus, too, was once an underdog. It took years of government support and failed launches before it earned global credibility. Its first aircraft, the A300, was a commercial dud—but paved the way for later triumphs.
A Long Descent or a Late Takeoff?
COMAC is no overnight disruptor. It is a long-term challenger playing a long game. Its aircraft may not yet compete toe-to-toe with Airbus or Boeing, but that may not be the point—yet. With patient capital, domestic scale, and strategic determination, it could chip away at the duopoly over the next two decades.
The skies are still ruled by Airbus and Boeing. But far below, COMAC is taxiing toward the runway—with the weight of a nation behind it, and a flight path stretching into the future.
