The souring of ties between India and Canada have raised alarms in diplomatic circles, with the future of the Indo-Canadian relationship left hanging under a huge grey cloud.
With a significant Indian diaspora in Canada, these concerns are wholly understandable. But this breakdown goes beyond recent events. Indeed, one would have to look into the past to understand the present of Indo-Canadian ties.
The Promising Start of a New Era
In 2015, when Justin Trudeau took over as the Prime Minister of Canada, the India-Canada relationship was already on a positive trajectory. Trudeau’s predecessor, Stephen Harper, had worked diligently to strengthen the bilateral ties, signing a nuclear agreement and making 2011 the “Year of India” in Canada. The stage was set for Trudeau to build on this momentum and take the relationship to new heights.
Trudeau’s Missed Opportunities
However, a perception soon took hold that Trudeau had failed to capitalize on the progress made by Harper. Experts felt that Trudeau had neglected India during his early years as Prime Minister, focusing instead on strengthening ties with China. The talks on a Free Trade Agreement between India and Canada also slowed down, further dampening the enthusiasm.
The Controversial 2018 Visit
Trudeau’s much-anticipated visit to India in 2018 was marked by a series of controversies. The invitation extended to Jaspal Atwal, a man convicted of attempting to assassinate an Indian Cabinet minister, caused a major public outcry in India. While the invite was quickly canceled, the damage was done, and the visit was overshadowed by this incident.
The Khalistan Conundrum
Another point of contention was the issue of Khalistan separatism. India was hoping that Canada would take a stronger stance against pro-Khalistan groups, but the reality proved to be quite different. In 2018, Canada’s government reportedly caved under pressure from these groups and removed all mentions of Khalistan/Sikh extremism from a report on public safety threats.
The Farmer Protests and Diplomatic Tensions
The tensions between the two countries escalated further in 2020 when Trudeau made comments on the ongoing farmer law protests in India. India strongly condemned this perceived interference in its internal affairs. The political dynamics became even more complicated when Trudeau’s party formed a coalition with the New Democratic Party, whose leader, Jagmeet Singh, had a history of being critical of India.
The Amritpal Singh Incident and Its Aftermath
In 2023, the crackdown on the extremist Amritpal Singh led to internet shutdowns in India, which Jagmeet Singh condemned as “draconian.” This further exacerbated the tensions, with pro-Khalistan groups staging protests against India’s High Commission in Canada and airing propaganda attacking Indian diplomats.
The Allegations and Diplomatic Fallout
The situation took a dramatic turn when Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused Indian government officials of involvement in the plot to kill Hardeep Nijjar, a prominent Khalistan activist. India was furious at the lack of concrete evidence and accused Canada of pandering to pro-Khalistan groups for “vote bank politics.”
The Breakdown of Trade and Immigration
As the diplomatic crisis deepened, the entire India-Canada relationship ground to a halt. From trade to immigration, the once-promising partnership seemed to have been completely derailed. India withdrew its High Commissioner from Canada, and several Canadian diplomats were also pulled out from India.
The Blame Game and Shattered Trust
Both countries have been quick to point fingers at each other, with India slamming Canada for its perceived soft stance on Khalistan extremism, and Canada demanding that India take action on the Nijjar case. The trust that had been carefully built over the years now lies in tatters, and it will take a significant effort from both sides to mend the relationship.
The Geopolitical Implications
The breakdown of Indo-Canadian relations is not just a bilateral issue; it has broader geopolitical implications. As India and Canada both seek to expand their global influence, this crisis could have ripple effects on their respective relationships with other key players in the international arena.
Experts believe that for the India-Canada relationship to recover, both countries will need to engage in a delicate dance of diplomacy and compromise. Addressing the underlying issues, such as the Khalistan question and the protection of diplomats, will be crucial. Only then can they hope to rebuild the trust and cooperation that once characterized this important partnership.
The Enduring Importance of the India-Canada Relationship
Despite the current setbacks, the India-Canada relationship remains a crucial one, with significant potential for growth in areas such as trade, investment, and cultural exchange. As the two countries navigate the turbulent waters ahead, it is essential that they recognize the enduring importance of this partnership.
The breakdown of Indo-Canadian relations is also a call to action for both countries to rise above the current crisis and renew their commitment to a strong, mutually beneficial partnership. Only then can they truly unlock the vast potential that lies at the heart of this crucial relationship.
